The probabilty of loss in an equity market diminishes over a long period of time. I am here referring more specifically to the Indian stock market benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index ‘SENSEX’. As it can be derived from the historical data that is available on their website, the rolling returns can be calculated. For a 1 year rolling return the probablity of loss is 12 out of 33, for a 5 year rolling return the probabilty of loss is 3 out of 29, for a 10 year rolling return the probabilty of loss is 1 out of 24 and for a 15 year rolling return the probabilty of loss is 0 out of 19. Click here to view the table.
